[In-depth analysis] Development trends of the global LED industry chain in 2015

The development of LED lighting in 2014 has been gratifying, and the global LED industry has developed rapidly. So what are the expectations and prospects for the future LED market?

(1) Overall development prospects

1. Global Situation

(1) Industrial Structure

According to the forecast of DIGITIMES Research, the global high-brightness LED output value will reach US$13.7 billion in 2015, which will increase by 7.5% compared with 2014. The total number of LEDs used will reach 186 billion, with an annual growth rate of 32.6%. Among them, LED lighting is the application product with the highest annual growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65%.

From the perspective of downstream applications, LED backlight shipments for TVs will experience negative growth in 2015. The main growth drivers for LED backlight applications come from the increase in the application proportion of edge-lit LEDs in TVs, the multiple growth in 4K backlight TV shipments, and the gradual rise of OLED curved TVs and quantum dot TVs. Among backlight LEDs, three categories of applications, including smartphones with large-size and high-definition screens, small-pitch displays, and automotive LEDs, will continue the positive growth trend in shipments in 2014, with annual usage growth rates ranging from 13% to 24%.

The use of LED light sources in tablets, notebooks, and monitors has shown a negative growth trend. Among them, tablets have been impacted by wearable devices such as large-screen mobile phones and smart watches, and shipments will further decrease, resulting in a negative growth of 9.8% in LED usage in 2015. It is expected to be the application category with the largest decline among LED backlight applications.

In 2015, the proportion of LED lighting applications will reach 49.3%, 9.9 percentage points higher than that in 2014. Among them, the light source used by LED lamps in the public lighting market will account for a higher proportion, and the industry scale will account for 37.4%. . Secondly, LED light bulbs will develop toward parity, with this type of light source accounting for 32.5%. (2) Regional structure

In terms of regional distribution, Europe has the largest market share, accounting for 23%. %, the LED lighting market size will reach US$5.911 billion in 2015. Although there is no large-scale subsidy policy, the high electricity prices and differences in light culture have increased the demand for LED in the commercial lighting and outdoor architectural lighting markets.

The Chinese market size is expected to reach US$5.397 billion, accounting for 21% of the market share. In 2015, benefiting from the steady growth of lighting market demand, both domestic demand and overseas exports in China's lighting market will continue to increase. However, due to the large number of suppliers, product price competition has intensified.

The United States ranks third, with a market size estimated at US$4.883 billion, accounting for 19% of the market share. As the United States continues to promote the Environmental Protection Agency's Energy Star program and DLC certification, manufacturers are encouraged to actively promote product certification in order to obtain subsidies.

The Japanese LED lighting market accounts for 9% of the market share, with a market size of US$2.313 billion. Japan is gradually opening up the LED lighting market for business use, such as schools, hospitals, chain stores, etc., while industrial and outdoor lighting are yet to be developed.

Other emerging markets including the rest of Asia, the Middle East and India, and Latin America account for 28% of the market share. The main driving forces for market development in these regions include population, policy promotion and project promotion. The application market in emerging regions will be further opened in 2015.